Iran and North Korea: Challenges to the US?

During the U.S presidential campaign Democratic candidate, Barack Obama's running mate, Joe Biden opined that soon after innauguration, President Obama would be tested by some foreign political actors. The ongoing crisis surrounding the election in Iran and the growing belligeraency of North Korea might be seen as the crystalization of such a test, but is it?

The answer is that it is not. Both Iran and North Korea are for the most part, moved forward by internal dynamics, not international factors, including the likely reaction of the United States. North Korea sees its basic relevance as an international political factor, as being inextricably tied to its efforts at developing nuclear technology and long-range ballistic missisles. It has no other materials or consumer goods to export, which means that without these kinds of moves, North Korea will actually be understood for what it really is: a Third World country in the same category as a Zimbabwe, whose future is absolutely bleak, unless it changes in ways that makes it a credible player in the international political economy.

Iran has been propped up by its oil wealth and a factitious homogeneity of cultural and political purpose, since the 1970s. What the tumult over the recent election results shows is that the Islamic Republic sits on top of a volcanic political reality, which is fundamentally contradictory to the myth of homogeneity. That should not be surprising, because the religious leaders who run Iran are at best a medieval presence, in a country with a young population, which is media savvy, highly educated, and plugged in to the rest of the world. That is why the religious leaders could not understand the dimensions of the ongoing protests in Iranian cities; why they think that they could use outdated authoritarian tactics to stamp out the protests.

The United States has so far responded deftly to the developing political drama in Iran , while reacting to North Korea in predictable, and unwise ways. Senator McCain is quite wrong in assuming that the United States could do more than it has for the people of Iran, who are protesting in the streets, and on the Internet. Actually, any attempt to become overly engaged on the Iranian protests, could endanger the credibility of the protesters amongst the masses of he Iranian people.

The statements of support for democratic process from the Obama White House are enough, both to reassure the Democratic forces in Iran, and to warn the Iranian government that a broad and violent crackdown on the masses of demonstrators will be roundly condemned and sanctioned by the international community. That awareness might explain why the Iranian establishment has so far not frontally attacked the protesters with violent reprisals.

In the final analysis both the Iranian and the North Korea regimes will be brought down by forces internal to the states, not by the United States.